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October 31, 2006

Comments

Dickeylee

These latest polls indicate the MJ Fox -vs- Rush battle going to MJ, and to Claire. Now Bush is flying to Springfield on Friday trying to shore up the base. The ship is sinking for the Republicans!

Tommy

As expected, this is still a statistical toss-up for the Talent/McCaskill race. But as I read the breakout of numbers for Amendment 2, I believe Talent is close to securing the election (remember Karl Rove's comment a couple of weeks ago about "smelling a lock in Missouri" for Talent?)

Opposition to 2 continues to grow...and will continue to grow. This week and weekend, priests, preachers, Sunday School teachers and small group leaders will re-emphasize the importance of getting out to vote, the truth about amendment 2 (why don't the supporters want to talk about EMBRYOTIC stem cell research?) and voting against 2. Those are the same voters who will vote for Jim Talent.

The Christian Right in Missouri is legit. The rural vote in the Show-Me State is huge. They will send Jim Talent back to the US Senate.

I, personally, make no apologies for being a Christian, for standing by my rural roots or for being a republican.

I think I'm starting to smell what Karl caught a hint of a couple of weeks ago...

Tommy

Dickylee--
The President's appearance in Springfield has been planned for a lot longer than the announcement that came out today. Don't read too much into POTUS coming to the Midwest for candidates...it's all part of The Architect's plan...put in place weeks (if not months) ago.

southerngirl

allright Tommy-- well said, and down in this rural area there is lots of talk of amendment 2 going on, and I think the churches here will do the big push. But I have said that before, and remember this was a climb for Jim who this skewed poll showed out 9 last time...Go JIM!!!

Dickeylee

The stem cell amendment 2 will be carried to victory by the I-70 corridor, Stl-Columbia-KC, where 75% of Missouri lives. And no Tommy, KY-3 said this morning that they were notified by the RNC last night. Like going to Topeka to try and save Ryan's butt this weekend. This is turning for Claire big. Now even Kyle in AZ is sweating, his opponent is within 2%. So Tommy, how many welfare dollars are you dragging home in your F-350?

mod dem

I'm with the other posters to some extent. The GOP advantage on the ground is worth at least 3 points, so, at best, this race is even.

Ammendment 2 will pass, and I'm suprised that the Talent camp has linked themselves to it in advertising. I would think that if they left it alone, there would be a lot of independents who would vote yes on #2, and for Jim Talent. Now, they've made it an either/or situation, which may hurt them.

Tommy

Just because the RNC told KY-3 last night that Bush was coming to town doesn't mean that it was just put together. I really expected more from you, Dickylee...you seem like you usually have a good hold on the political rounds.
So a toss-up is big for Claire? I don't think so. If this is all the democrats can come up with from a state-wide office holder that DID oust the governor (I'm sure they're still thanking her for that move), they'd better re-tool.

The I-70 corridor isn't going to carry squat this time around...just like the last election in Missouri. It'll be the rural vote that pushes things in the direction they have in the past. $3 corn, $6 soybeans, good cattle and hog markets, ethanol plants making profits and biodiesel plants being built. These are the things that excite the rural vote and are a reminder of how crappy things were under democrat leadership. As long as they show up, Talent's back and Amendment 2 goes down.

No F-350. No welfare dollars. I drive a Ford Explorer and a minivan to haul my Christian family to church on Wednesdays and Sundays...all with the dollars my wife and I earn while doing our JOBS.

I'm still confused about why the Anti-Amendment two folks haven't come out strong for In-Vitro fertilization. Anyone who has done IVF knows that they fertilize many eggs and once they have a successful implantation those eggs are generally destroyed. How can you be against one and not the other?

meant AGAINST IVF obviously

Look a little closer at those poll results Tommy. It shows you where the voters are located demographically. 70% of Missouri voters live in the greater KC and St. Louis regions. Rural voters are an ever decreasing percentage of voters in Missouri. Check the census from 1990 and again in 2000 if you want to see the raw facts.

openmind

Can we take a poll of people who are tired of seeing polls? I vote Yes.

Tommy

Where did Blunt win in 2000? Talent? It was the rural vote that carried them through. Yes, the greatest number of voters are in the metro areas...but do they show up on election day in as great a percentage as the rural voters? Not likely.

By the way...I drove I-70 last week and did a sign count. Talent=6; McCaskill=3; No on Amendment 2=3, Yes on Amendment 2=0. I know...signs don't vote....but signs influence uninformed voters.

I go to church for reasons other than politics--but I guess some people need to be told how to vote. And at church no less. I suppose these same people who will be told how to vote on Amend 2 by their preacher believes that Pat Robertson can bench press 1000 lbs. Lord help us!

but signs influence uninformed voters.

Don't you mean stupid voters.

Tommy

You're right...uninformed=stupid. I wish the uninformed wouldn't vote. But they do...and it's their right...

There are only a few of reasons to put out yard signs:
1) to let people know who you support
2) to influence people who to vote for
3) to show your support for a candidate.

When uninformed voters drive to the poll, they'll notice the signs. If they see 10 Jim Talent signs and only 2 McCaskill signs, they're probably going to vote for Talent. No one wants to vote for a loser...As an uninformed voter, their perception of who the "winner" is is who they see the most support for. That's how yard signs are such a big player in an election.

Why do you think candidates want signs as close to the polling places as possible?

Yeah, anyone who thinks the polls out today are good news for Talent needs to stop chugging the kool-aid. Talent's even or behind in every poll and in politics, ties almost always go to the challenger.

IOKIYAAR

Yardsigns mean nothing.

I have them up b/c I want my neighbors to know I am an active political Democrat but yard signs mean nothing at the polls.

I am a Christian!
I am a Democrat!
I became a Dem after I started fully exploring the life of Christ in the Bible.

Go Claire!

ties almost always go to the challenger.

For some crazy reason I always thought uninformed voters usually vote for the incumbent based on name recognition.

jenniferm

tommy, I will have to disagree (not on your three reasons) but that an uninformed voter will base their vote on yard signs. "Uninformed" is clearly a word I would use to characterize someone and so will you--but I know of no one who will volunteer the information that they are uninformed.

I have voted for winners and losers of political races--and proud of that fact I might add. My politics is clear to anyone who knows me--but I won't put a bumper sticker on my car nor a sign in my yard.

AP Poll: GOP outreach to blacks falters

WASHINGTON - So much for the Republican charm offensive toward minorities. Black voters are far less likely to approve of the way President Bush is doing his job than voters generally and they are more likely to feel that the country is on the wrong track, disheartening news for a Republican Party that has been trying to curry favor with minority voters in recent years.

In what could be a particularly bad sign for Republicans in next week's midterm elections, black voters also are more likely to say that the Iraq war was a mistake and that recent disclosures of scandal and corruption in Congress will be very important to their vote, according to an Associated Press-AOL Black Voices poll conducted Oct. 23 through Monday.

Black voters have historically voted Democratic, and their votes are critical to Democratic hopes to win tight Senate contests in Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia.

Unhappiness among black voters is reflected by L.C. Washington, a 41-year-old Democratic graduate student from Montgomery, Ala., who says Bush is "the worst president in history," not to mention "the dumbest president I've ever seen - he's the devil." Washington lays blame for a laundry list of ills at the Republican Party's doorstep.

"Republicans are trying to win over black voters," says Washington, but "not doing a good job. Doing a poor job - the war, gas prices, job losses and the layoffs."

Even among black Republicans, there clearly still is work for the GOP to do.

"I don't think Republicans are doing any kind of reaching out to African-Americans," said 71-year-old L.D. Harper of Springfield Gardens, N.Y., who's been a Republican since he was 18.

While black voters say Republicans have done a poor job of representing their interests, they also have misgivings about the Democratic Party. Almost half of black voters said the Democratic Party takes their vote for granted; about a third said the party has done a poor job of representing their interests.

About a fourth of blacks said they weren't confident their votes would be counted accurately.

On the issues, black voters were most likely to rate the economy and health care as extremely or very important to them personally.

The AP-AOL Black Voices telephone poll of 900 black adults, 361 of whom are likely voters, was conducted by Ipsos. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 5 percentage points for the black likely voters. The overall likely voter results are from an AP-AOL poll released last week.

About nine of 10 black voters have gone for the Democrats in recent elections.

Republicans, particularly party chairman Ken Mehlman, have tried to reach out to minority voters in recent years. Bush's draw on the black vote inched up to a still-anemic 11 percent in 2004. But since then the party has taken a hit because of widespread dissatisfaction with how the Bush administration responded to Hurricane Katrina last year.

Only 38 percent of blacks are confident the federal government would help them in a major disaster, according to the AP-AOL poll.

And while the Republican Party has strongly pushed the candidacies of black Republicans in the coming elections, the survey offers little hope that black GOP candidates hold special appeal for minority voters. More than eight in 10 black likely voters say the race of the candidate makes no difference to them.

"It just depends on their platform," said Kassandra Williamson-Moore, a black Democrat from Indianapolis. "You can't just vote strictly by race."

Prominent black candidates this year include Republican gubernatorial hopefuls Kenneth Blackwell in Ohio and Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania, GOP Senate candidate Michael Steele in Maryland, and Democratic Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr., in Tennessee. Republicans Steele, Blackwell and Swann are behind in the polls; Democrat Ford is running about even with his opponent.

Blacks are disproportionately unhappy with Bush, 89 percent of likely voters disapprove, compared with 61 percent of all likely voters.

But blacks' approval ratings for Congress - disapproval ratings, actually - are roughly similar to those for all likely voters. Some 83 percent of likely black voters disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job, compared with 75 percent of all likely voters.

David Bositis, of the Washington-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, said there's little variation in congressional approval numbers by race because Congress is so widely viewed as being "in the trash."

Overall, Bositis said, the Republican courtship of black voters sometimes looks like a case of "one step forward, two steps back."

"They're never going to succeed in attracting more African-American support until the party has some level of catastrophic failure and then decides to go back to the drawing board," he said.

Curtis Gans, director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate, said voter turnout among blacks tends to be lower than among adults in general, but in 2004 they, like Americans overall, turned out in higher numbers.

He said voter discontent could boost turnout similarly this time, adding that: "The group that is the most uniformly anti-Republican at this time is African-Americans."

Two-thirds of black registered voters say they are following news about the campaign, compared with 71 percent of all registered voters doing likewise.

LarrytheScrabbleGuy

I gotta say the drives I've done outstate, it seems like McCaskill's better represented in terms of signs than she was in 2004. Signs don't vote, but she doesn't have to win rural Missouri. She just has to win 3% more votes.

2:28 PM -- if a race is tied, the incumbent more often than not will lose. Undecided voters tend to break 2-1 toward the challenger.

Tommy

Jenniferm is right. I have yet to talk to a voter who will admit they are uninformed.

But I do think there are voters who go to the poll to vote for someone or something and then feel obligated to fill in the rest of the ballot...that's when they start (sometimes subliminally) filling in who they think the "winner" is or who they've seen/heard the most about.

I have the bumper sticker for Talent, and yard signs for some local candidates. I believe they could be influencing my neighbors and the people that drive up and down the street (just 2 blocks from the nearest polling place).

...it must have influenced my neighbor. I put up my Amendment 2 sign and she found one opposite of mine to post within a week. BTW...We're still talking.

Only 38 percent of blacks are confident the federal government would help them in a major disaster Some 83 percent of likely black voters disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job.

This makes no sense...Conspiracy!

81% of blacks disapprove of gay marriage...uh oh democrats!

IOKIYAAR--
I wasn't implying that Democrats aren't Christians. Sorry if you read me that way earlier.

But I also don't make an apology for being a Christian and being a republican. It gripes me that people want to paint me as some sort of wack-o for being a Christian Republican that votes.
My preacher doesn't tell me how to vote. I don't vote the way my Christian friends tell me to vote. I'm a Christian. I vote. No apologies.

BTW...what does IOKIYAAR mean?

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