Ad astra

   For all the talk about new media and politics, spending for political commercials on old-fashioned TV screens may hit a record this year -- driven in part by spending from the political parties.

   Why?

    Claire McCaskill and Jim Talent will probably spend $18 million, combined, on TV before Tuesday -- yet their race is roughly where it was a year ago.

    Nancy Boyda, by contrast, hasn't spent a lot on TV -- but has pulled close to Rep. Jim Ryun in Kansas 02.

    Opponents of Missouri's Amendment 2 have made up ten points in that campaign, despite being massively outspent on television; the same might be said for opponents of the Johnson County soccer park.

    (I know, I know: opponents of early stem cell research are getting lots of help from some churches.  The point here is the impact of television advertising.)

  But before we jump to conclusions: the Kansas campaigns of Jim Barnett and Chuck Ahner seem less compelling, to some, precisely because they're not doing much TV.  (Kathleen Sebelius gets no extra credit for her spots, which are the most treacly commercials in memory:  they look and sound like ads for Saving Private Ryan.)  And Phill Kline's commercials may end up costing him votes.

    So does political TV advertising work?  How?

    Discuss.

Posted by Dave Helling

Comments

[rhonda]

It seems like the American public is finally getting wise to negative campaigning. The negative campaigns against Claire McCaskill and Paul Morrison are very weak. I think viewers can tell that they're really reaching. And what about the campaign against the supposed Penthouse XXX candidate? What a joke. Could it be that we're getting smarter? I hope so.

"President Bush warned Democrats not to celebrate too early. This is from the guy who put up the 'Mission Accomplished' sign three years ago." - Jay Leno

[jenniferm]

I would like to think the voters are getting smarter, yet we still see the same kind of garbage being created. The Kline/Morrison race is a good example. Such trash. McCaskill/Talent is tame compared to that race.

I don't know what the campaigns are thinking. Going after independent voters? Making sure they have solid support from their traditional voters? What?

For me personally the one race where negative ads affected me was the Cleaver/Paterson race in 2004. I was all set to vote for Paterson then those awful ads started showing up on TV. Dredging up the same old sh!t. Nothing about the kind of person/candidate/congresswoman Paterson was going to be, all about Cleaver and trips to Napa Valley and Disney World. Geesh! I did not vote for her for that reason, she had my vote up until about two weeks to go. She got in the gutter and I was not happy about it.

[crd]

"And what about the campaign against the supposed Penthouse XXX candidate?"

That ad was produced by the Sam Graves campaign against Sara Jo Shettles, who had some sort of sales position for Omni magazine over a decade ago -- Omni was a science magazine that happened to share a publisher with Penthouse.

Not only did the ad fall flat against the grandmotherly Shettles (who looks about as far from a Penthouse model as does Graves himself), it garnered national attention in the Washington Post and likely got donations for Shettles' campaign that she otherwise wouldn't have gotten.

It'll be interesting to see how badly this ad backfires on Sam Graves this coming Tuesday. I wouldn't predict victory for Shettles just yet, but in this poor year for Republicans, I wouldn't be surprised if his lead is significantly eroded.

How many of us would go to a job interview and start bashing the competition and the boss? No one, it would be crazy to do this. Yet, it is allowed in politics. What ever happened to just standing on your beliefs and accomplishments? The only message I have gotten from all of this negativity is that neither candidate (McCaskill / Talent) has strong enough ideas to win the election.

[locomotivebreath1901]

Political TV advertising works - especially negative advertising.

That's why it won't die.

Many people love a good slap fight & other people's dirt. Witness the success and popularity of such intellectual fare as WWF, soap operas and voting xyz off the island.

Unfortunately, many of these same distracted people vote based upon similar adolescent struggles seen during political advertisments.

Ah, progress in the digital age.

And don't get me started on Oprah, Montel or other two hanky maudlin shows.....

[CRD]

The funny thing is, the only thing I've seen from Sam Graves has been the mudslinging against Shettles -- I've seen absolutely nothing touting his own record.

I'll agree that negative adverstising can succeed, but it can also backfire, particularly when it has little to no basis in reality, and the public, which ain't always as dumb as some of the political hacks seem to think, gets wise to it.

How about some ads along this line:

WHERE IS THE APOLOGY

Kerry botches a joke about Bush. Republicans demand an apology to the troops and their families.

A problem for Democrats? Only if they don't seek the answer inside the problem.
The answer? Republicans want to call for apologies when defaming, undermining and letting down our troops? Let's get this party started.

COMMERCIAL #1
Run Bush's hysterical search for WMD at the White House Press Corp Dinner.
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #2
Run Rumsfeld's "Go to war with the army you have, not the one you want."
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #3
Run Cheney's "The insurgency, if you will, is in its last throes."
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #4
Run John Boehner's "We''ll beat (Kerry) to death."
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #5
Run Bush's "Brownie, your'e doin' a heckuva job."
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #6
Run Cheney's "We will, in fact, be greeted as liberators."
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #7
Run George Tenet getting the Medal of Freedom from George Bush.
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #8
Run Wolfowitz testifying how the war would pay for itself.
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #9
Run Rumsfeld saying that he couldn't see the war going past six months.
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL # 10
Run Barbara Bush saying that living in the Astrodome is working out really well for Katrina victims
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #11
Run Tony Snow saying that the thousands killed in Iraq was "just a number."
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #12
Run Bush's admission that he just doesn't think that much about bin Laden.
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

COMMERCIAL #13
Run Bush's "Bring it on."
Ending Graphic: Where is the apology?

HuffPo

Bush jokes about NOT finding WMDs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0TnqUlB4Gg

WHERE'S THE APOLOGY?!

[Ern]

Maybe it'll come after the Dems take over Congress. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

[mod dem]

It seems that some capaign somewhere would tap into this depression with the ads that look and sound the same and come up with something funny, clever, and positive. Surely there is enough creativity in the world to make even political ads tolerable? Claire McCaskill--real woman of genius? Jim Talent screaming 'BRILLIANT'?